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Posted To: MND NewsWire

In another dive into data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) found that one third of the nine census divisions and thus 21 states were responsible for 60 percent of single family housing starts last year. The South Atlantic division encompasses the coastal states stretching from Delaware to Florida plus West Virginia and accounted for 260,000 of the 848,000 starts last year. The West South Central division was in second place and the Mountain division third. The number of starts in 2017 was up 9 percent from 2016 and four divisions outpaced the national rate; the Pacific division at 17 percent, West North Central at 11 percent, South Atlantic and Mountain divisions at 10 percent each. Growth decelerated from the 2016 rate...(read more)

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7/20/2018 9:43:49 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae's economists have upgraded their second quarter economic forecast but say that may be about it for the year . In their July forecast, the company's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, headed by Doug Duncan, noted that the expansion just celebrated its ninth anniversary "with a bang." Economic growth in the second quarter may have approached the high in that expansion that occurred almost three years ago. The outlook for housing has turned bearish. Single-family construction starts were up in May for the fourth time in five months but still lagged the post-crash high of last November. (Fannie Mae's economists prepared this report before the June data was released wherein housing starts plummeted by more than 12 percent.) Multifamily starts rebounded in May, reversing about...(read more)

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7/20/2018 8:03:45 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday. As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move above a ceiling in order to confirm such a break is taking place. Ultimately, yesterday's theme evolved into a resounding defense of the 2.88+ yield ceiling. More simply put: yields briefly traded near 2.90% and then bounced lower with solid demand underlying the move. As the top section of the following chart shows, today has seen yields hold right in the middle of the prevailing range. If they remain fairly close to current levels, today will end up being an uneventful "punt" to next week. Bonds will effectively be saying they're putting off bigger decisions for now. In fact, they'd be putting off the comparatively small decision...(read more)

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7/20/2018 7:27:53 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

A Small Business Administration analysis found that about 90 percent of the country’s damage costs from natural disasters happen in ZIP codes with less than 20 percent of the country’s population. If you’re in the mood to see what that looks like on a map — or want advice of where not to move — the New York Times has done yeoman’s work in compiling more than a decade of disaster data. Flood and Disaster News Let me be blunt – I’m jaded when it comes to Congress and the Administration doing something permanent when it comes to the flood program. It seems like every year or two the issue is punted. The National Flood Insurance Program is scheduled to expire July 31st. While I am sure Congress cares, is it going to do anything about this? Despite...(read more)

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7/20/2018 7:06:41 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

If you are an MBS Live member, today's recap has already been written in this update and in The Huddle . Non-MBS Live members can get a pretty solid idea from the free mortgage rate article HERE . For those who don't like to click links, suffice it to say that the upper range boundary that we've been paying so much attention to ended up being the key ingredient in today's movement. Technical ceilings in rates can either serve to motivate follow-through selling when broken, or they can serve as a cue for buyers to get back in the market and push rates back into the range. Today saw the former. 10yr yields were as high as 2.897% just after the Philly Fed data (much stronger than expected). But buyers were waiting and had already made their presence known after overnight highs...(read more)

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7/19/2018 2:02:04 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates had a scare today, as they began the day at their highest levels of the month (depending on the lender) only to fall back in line with yesterday (or better!). The reason for the back-and-forth movement has to do with esoteric behind-the-scenes stuff in the bond market. I should be able to make it tangible enough for you, so let's give it a shot. Bonds are the backbone for all interest rates. The bonds that underlie mortgages tend to move almost exactly like 10yr Treasury yields. Treasuries are a great case study to follow when it comes to rates because they are abundant, more actively traded, and essentially risk-free. That risk-free part is important because it means Treasuries can be used as a benchmark to assess the value of other bonds that aren't guaranteed by the full faith...(read more)

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7/19/2018 12:53:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A group of financial experts is scheduled to meet at on Thursday to make funeral arrangements for Libor . In case you hadn't heard, the London interbank offered rate, the number that indicates how much one bank needs to borrow from another, is not expected to survive much beyond the end of the decade. All good, or even not so good, things must come to an end, and Libor has had moments of each, but Matt Phillips, writing in the New York Times, says the problem is that the financial world, going into the meeting at the Federal Reserve of New York, hasn't figured out what to do if/when Libor breathes its last. While most of this country has no clue about Libor, few are untouched by it. It is the basis for interest rates on huge corporate loans , private student loans, and for resetting rates on...(read more)

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7/19/2018 9:50:36 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Yet another federal court has rebuffed shareholders hoping to recover some value from their investments in the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A three-judge panel for the Fifth Circuit (Texas) Court of Appeals refused to stop the practice of net worth sweeps required of the GSEs, but, the plaintiffs, whether their intention or not, did succeed in getting the structure of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) ruled unconstitutional. FHFA v Collins was an appeal of a suit filed by GSE stockholders J. Patrick Collins, Marcus J. Liotta, and William M. Hitchcock in October 2016. It was the latest in a long stream of lawsuits against the government regarding its 2008 seizure of the GSEs. The original suit named FHFA and its current director Melvin H. Watt and...(read more)

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7/19/2018 9:07:06 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This primer (and this one , and this one ) will be useful for digesting the following, if you haven't read it before. For those paying any sort of attention to trading levels in bond markets over the past few weeks, it's hard to miss the super narrow range between 2.825 and 2.885 in 10yr yields. That's been perfectly intact since June 27th, and was broken for the first time in today's overnight session. In the chart above, there are plenty of causes for concern in terms of the technical implications of recent moves: Mid-Bollinger (middle yellow line) is broken 2.885% was broken overnight short-term momentum hasn't been oversold enough (above upper blue line) to imply support longer-term momentum has plenty of room to run (empty space between current levels and oversold)...(read more)

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7/19/2018 7:18:37 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Rob, are you hearing, now that the CFPB is perceived to have lost its teeth, that some lenders are providing their loan officers two different rate sheets?” Unfortunately, yes, I am hearing that, but hopefully it is an untrue rumor. It would certainly fly in the face of fair lending and would give another black eye to our industry. See note below from The Knowledge Coop’s Ken Perry regarding compliance issues on this. (By the way, the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection has announced the appointment of Paul Watkins to lead the Bureau’s new Office of Innovation, and a confirmation hearing for Kathy Kraninger, President Trump’s pick to lead the CFPB, is scheduled today before the Senate Banking Committee.) Upcoming Events and Training Now is the perfect time...(read more)

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7/19/2018 7:13:49 AM

Ken Flory, Bennion Deville Homes 760-485-2123 or email: flry7@aol.com  California BRE Lic#01361850


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