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Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MND NewsWire

This month marks the tenth anniversary of the current expansion. How much longer can it last? Fannie Mae's July Economics Development report indicates it has a way to go, although likely at a slowing pace. The second quarter of 2019 has just ended, but Fannie Mae's ESR Macroeconomic Forecast team expects that growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) probably slowed from the impressive 3.1 percent it posted in Q1. They upgraded last month's Q2 estimate by one-tenth based on higher expenditures for personal consumption, but still expect growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.8 percent. They have maintained their previous full-year forecast for 2019 GDP of 2.1 percent. This will slow further next year to an estimated 1.6 percent due to waning fiscal stimulus, continued uncertainty weighing...(read more)

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7/17/2019 6:34:09 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application activity retreated again during the week ended July 12, although refinancing remained strong. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite index, a measure of application volume, was down 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week. That earlier week's data included an adjustment to account for the Independence Day holiday. The non-adjusted Composite Index rose 24 percent week-over-week, more than recovering from its 22 percent decline during the holiday period. The Refinance Index gained 2 percent compared to the previous week and was 87 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Precisely half of applications received were for refinancing, up from a 48.7 percent share during the week ended July 5. The seasonally adjusted...(read more)

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7/17/2019 6:16:34 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory. On the one hand, that was impressive considering the lack of substance underlying yesterday's rally. On the other hand, that lack of substance meant we were at risk of a bigger reaction to the Retail Sales data. Retail Sales came out stronger than expected and bonds quickly retreated back in line with yesterday's weakest levels. Notably, however, bonds never broke through to any weaker territory. In fact, today's ceiling (2.143% in terms of 10yr yields) was slightly lower than the 2.15% ceiling from the past 3 consecutive sessions). The rest of the morning's economic data was a non-event, clearing the way for an asset allocation trade to benefit bonds in the afternoon (selling stocks and buying bonds). Treasuries ended up clawing...(read more)

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7/16/2019 4:27:00 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage rates) was eagerly awaiting the week's first major economic data. Even though the Fed will almost certainly cut rates at the end of the month, additional cuts depend heavily on the balance of economic data. To whatever extent the data is strong, the Fed becomes less likely to continue cutting rates and the broader financial market becomes less interested in bonds. When investors are interested in buying bonds, it's good for rates! Fortunately for prospective borrowers, today's movement was minimal. In fact, many lenders are effectively unchanged versus yesterday. Moreover, bonds managed to improve throughout the day with those specifically underlying...(read more)

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7/16/2019 2:34:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Builder confidence rose slightly in July. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its Housing Market Index (HMI), which it sponsors with Wells Fargo, gained one point, rising to 65. This marks the sixth consecutive month that sentiment levels have held at a steady range in the low- to mid-60s. NAHB Chair Greg Ugalde said, "Builders report solid demand for single-family homes. However, they continue to grapple with labor shortages , a dearth of buildable lots and rising construction costs that are making it increasingly challenging to build homes at affordable price points relative to buyer incomes," The HMI derives from a survey that NAHB has conducted among its new home builder members for over 30 years. In that survey builders are asked to give their perceptions of current single...(read more)

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7/16/2019 9:25:12 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Although lots of small lenders don’t seem interested in being acquired any longer (“Hey, our pipeline is full and we’re making money again! Autumn is a long way off!”), M&A is alive and well. The latest example comes from Southern California where William Lyon Homes (NYSE: WLH) has bought South Pacific Financial Corp., a retail mortgage banking company based in Irvine. South Pacific has been rebranded as ClosingMark Homes Loans Inc., and is part of a new financial services division being launched by the homebuilder. The unit, ClosingMark Financial Group , will include title insurance, settlement and mortgage services. Lender Products and Services As a lending manager, the winding down of home-buying season is the perfect time to re-evaluate your process and determine...(read more)

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7/16/2019 7:01:05 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds traversed a sleepy summertime Monday trading session without much volume or liquidity. That dynamic was somewhat exacerbated by the fact that Japanese markets were closed (which means there was no hub for Treasury trading during Asian market hours). This left incidental tradeflows in control with the day's biggest move seen right after the NYSE Open. In the day ahead, bonds will digest the week's first meaningful economic data in the form of Retail Sales at 8:30am. The Fed referred to the consumer segment as one of the parts of the economy it's NOT worried about. That could make for a bigger reaction if the report is weaker than expected. But any big reaction will continue to fight the "summer doldrums" for financial markets. In short, lighter...(read more)

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7/16/2019 6:35:26 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays with light volume, light trader participation, and "drifty" trading momentum. A market holiday in Tokyo (Asian market hours' requisite hub for cash Treasury trading) didn't help start the day off strong for the US bond market. but even after the European session began, volumes remained well shy of recent averages. The onset of domestic trading saw progressively more activity but it was really only the 9:30am NYSE open that brought any appearance of conviction. Even then, it wasn't much conviction (just over 1bp of improvement for 10yr yields). We tend to see opening/closing bells garner the biggest moves of the day when traders are tuned out amid an absence of meaningful data, participation and volume. With...(read more)

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7/15/2019 2:42:31 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were mostly flat to begin the new week, even though underlying bond markets were in stronger territory. Bonds, more than anything else, dictate the day-to-day direction for mortgage rates. That said, there are different varieties of bonds as well as different levels of willingness to react on the part of mortgage lenders. In today's case, the bonds that specifically govern mortgages aren't doing quite as well as the broader bond market. As of this morning, lenders weren't seeing enough improvement to make any meaningful changes to their rate offerings. Mortgage-backed bonds have improved somewhat throughout the day. At face value, that seems like it should help mortgage rates and indeed it might. The issue is that there hasn't been quite enough improvement for the average lender...(read more)

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7/15/2019 2:18:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the week just passed, the first 4 days (and especially Tue/Thu) served as the scene for a breakout from the previous trend (seen in the yellow lines on today's chart). Investors eagerly awaited Powell's congressional testimony, with bonds leading off toward higher yields in advance (Tuesday). When Powell's prepared speech hit the wires (Wed), bonds took some solace, but Thursday's slightly stronger CPI report and terrible 30yr bond auction prompted heavy selling. By Friday, however, yields were able to maintain the same ceiling for 2 days in a row at 2.15%. In the week ahead, we'll continue assessing the 2.15% ceiling (hit again overnight) for support. After the overnight bounce, we're starting the domestic session roughly 4 bps lower. If 2.15% does end up acting...(read more)

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7/15/2019 7:12:17 AM

Ken Flory, Bennion Deville Homes 760-485-2123 or email: flry7@aol.com  California BRE Lic#01361850


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