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Mortgage Rates Escape Three Treasury Auctions Unharmed3/11/2010 5:05 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

After two dataless days and no movement in mortgage rates, action picked up yesterday. Mortgage rates opened the day lower, however, thanks to big turnout at the 10 year Treasury note auction, enchmark yields rallied and mortgage-backed security prices moved higher into the close. We sat and waited for lenders to reprice, disappointingly they never did. This isn't a surprise though, lenders are quick to take away rate sheet pricing when MBS prices are falling but really slow to pass along improvements when MBS prices are on the rise. We had a couple of scheduled economic reports that were released early enough to sway the direction of mortgage rates today. First we got Weekly Jobless Claims from the Department of Labor. This report provides three measures on the health of the labor market...(read more)

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Foreclosure Filings Drop. Prevention Policies Distorting Supply and Demand 3/11/2010 4:25 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Today RealtyTrac® released its February U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The RealtyTrac report shows that foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions declined 2 percent from January. A total of 308,524 properties in the United States received one of the listed notices during the month. This equates to 1 house in every 418 units. Compare that to January's ratio of 1 in every 409. That works out to a 10% month over month improvement. However, when comparing data from one year ago (Feb 2009), the ratio is still 6% worse. James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac says, "The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we've seen since January 2006 , when we began calculating...(read more)

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MBS CLOSE: On The Brink Of Something Epic?3/11/2010 4:24 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS end 1 tick down at 100-29 10yr Note Yield at 3.725 S&P up 5 points, all gains late in the day 30yr Auction pressures rates early and helps out late This one's a good read, and a tangible concept to share with clients and business partners Something Epic? Let's not get too carried away... After all, we've been here plenty of times before only for the much anticipated turning point to send markets sideways--merely prolonging the "waiting for guidance." But where exactly is "here?" And why is it more epic than every other day that bonds end the day "honing in" (trading in a narrowing orbit AROUND a certain price) on key technical levels? Fortunately, the 2 day chart contains a good example of something we see fairly often, which is prices or yields...(read more)

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MBS AFTERNOON: Volatility Fades As Bonds Cling To The Edge3/11/2010 2:37 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The Edge: Both MBS 4.5's and 10yr notes are UNCHANGED at the moment For MBS, that's 100-30 and for the 10yr, that's just under 3.73 Verdict on this auction cycle: undecided... waiting for retail sales tomorrow and FOMC next week The snake continues to coil, but who will it strike? When we reference the snake, that would be a chart with with converging/competing trends in a "triangle" shape. Since the line on such charts is usually predisposed to move directionally after it breaks out of the triangle. In this sense, it's like a "coiling snake" preparing to strike out in one direction or the other. As we are still in the middle of this triangle, there's no clear indication of which direction rates want to move of their own accord. With retail sales coming...(read more)

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FHA Commissioner: Raising the Down Payment Requirement Would Hurt Housing Recovery3/11/2010 1:40 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Increasing the minimum down payment required for a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan from 3.5 percent to 5 percent could be a double whammy, affecting both potential homebuyers and the economy as a whole according to David H. Stevens, FHA Commissioner. At the same time, a lower loan to value ratio (LTV) by itself is not a particularly good indicator of buyer risk. In a statement prepared for a hearing Thursday afternoon by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, the Commissioner said if the agency raised the minimum down payment to 5 percent "as some have suggested," it would adversely impact the housing market recovery. The agency has conducted an evaluation of the loan files of a large sample of recent loans to identify homeowners...(read more)

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MBS LUNCH: 30 Year Bond Auction Results and Reactions3/11/2010 12:09 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The previously discussed auction concession must have been sufficient because the long bond auction went very well. Overall, auction demand was well above average---2.89 bids were submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. 82% of the auction was taken down at the high yield of 4.679% (dealer bids). I should share the auction caveat before going any further.... success was driven by a hungry bid from from direct buyers who took home a record 29.5% of the issue . This massive support offset a very weak turnout from Indirect bidders, who were awarded only 23.9%. Primary dealers got 46.4% of the $13 billion...below average Here is a recap of the results: 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BONDS YIELDS High 4.679 pct Median 4.645 pct Low 4.580 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.128159 Accepted at high 82.80 pct...(read more)

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Mortgage Portmanteaus -- Brankers and Broanchers vs. Net Branches3/11/2010 11:48 AM

Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report

A portmanteau means a blend of two or more words and their meanings into one new word. An example is the word brunch meaning breakfast +lunch. Another is smog meaning a combination of smoke and fog. Some would consider a portmanteau a type of word morphing and we agree. Mortgage lending has had its share of portmanteaus. Over the last several years mortgage brokers who were transitioning to mortgage banking were sometimes phrased as Brankers. Branker is a morph of a mortgage banker and mortgage broker. A Branker acts and operates as a mortgage broker and doesn’t perform many functions of a mortgage banker – underwriting, doc prep and secondary market --, but does fund and sell loans in their name as a mortgage bankers. One key similarity with Bankers and Brankers is loan repurchase...(read more)

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MBS MORNING: Supply Concessions Set Up. Targets Outlined3/11/2010 10:37 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The main theme in the rates market this morning has been a set up for the last Treasury auction of the week :$13 billion 30s. Results to be released at 1pm. The auction supply concession is obvious when looking at both price action outright as well as the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve. The chart below is 30 year bond prices. Notice the initial concession that was able to be built in after the Employment Situation Report was released last Friday. This theme carried over to this week...bond prices have continued to fall ahead of today's auction. Looking at the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve makes the auction concession even more obvious. 30s got their butts whipped by 2s after jobs data last Friday and the curve steepened...(read more)

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Lenders Relaxing Non-Agency ARM Regs; High Cost Loan Reporting Guidance; Negative Convexity Defined; New Mortgagee Letter3/11/2010 9:56 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Who says numbers aren't fun? A top muni bond analyst at Wells Fargo sent THIS to me. Numbers are fun! Sometimes time drags, and sometimes it flies. I came to this brilliant observation yesterday while waiting in the California DMV, waiting for my 15 year old daughter to obtain her driver's permit. Time flies doesn't it? On the other hand, in the mortgage business, it seems like a lifetime ago when companies were offering stated/stated 90% neg AM loans. Can anyone seriously push to have those days come back? That being said, ING notified its brokers that it raised LTV's and CLTV's, especially on Jumbo adjustable rate mortgages. US Bank's wholesale division is pushing its 1/1, 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 ARM programs with IO options, cash out, up to $1.5 million. EverBank is "dipping...(read more)

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MBS OPEN: Speculative Signs of Reversal in Benchmarks3/11/2010 7:52 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Good Morning. A nationwide strike has essentially shut down Greece. From the AP : "Thursday's strike — the second in a week — brought the country to a virtual standstill, grounding all flights and bringing public transport to a halt. State hospitals were left with emergency staff only and all news broadcasts were suspended as workers walked off the job for 24 hours to protest spending cuts and tax hikes designed to tackle the country's debt crisis" Seems like a good way to cut the deficit doesn't it? (note sarcasm) Jobless Claims data has been released. The market was expecting 460,000 new claims and 4.49m continued claims. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to 462,000 in the week ending 3/6/2010. This is 6,000 less than the previous...(read more)

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Ken Flory, Tarbell, Realtors 760-485-2123 or email: flry7@aol.com  California DRE Lic#01361850


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