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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just past, bonds continued moving higher in yield, adding distance between themselves and the unexpectedly low levels seen during the trade war rally. Actually, I'll stop myself there because if I were to read what I just wrote, I might yell at the screen a bit. Reason being: it's sort of stupid to say "unexpectedly low levels." We shouldn't ever really EXPECT bond market levels to be in any particular place. They will go wherever they're going to go, and that's exactly where we should expect them to be. As soon as too many traders start expecting bonds to do one thing, they become vulnerable to a move in the other direction. So let's just say the timing and the pace of the bond market rally in the first few weeks of May ran counter to prevailing...(read more)

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5/22/2019 7:18:47 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s going on behind the scenes and in the rumor mill at the MBA’s Secondary Conference? There is derision about HUD’s Ben Carson not knowing what There is derision about HUD’s Ben Carson not knowing what “ REO ” stands for. Holders of mortgage assets like banks and credit unions are very concerned with CECL , and their actions and pricing moves will transfer to non-bank lenders – most of whom have never heard of these accounting changes coming at us. CoreLogic and the Department of Justice sparring . In the MI biz, lots of talk about how the volume & market share of only two - Genworth and Essent - “coincidentally” rose at the same time as the three major wholesalers were ramping up their volume and market share. How, with the big...(read more)

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5/22/2019 6:18:42 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While calling the recent report on real gross domestic product (GDP) the strongest first quarter in four years, Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group agreed with Freddie Mac's economist that the 3.2 percent reported growth is unsustainable. Report details showed deceleration in both household and business spending growth compared to the fourth quarter. Half of the headline growth was due to increases in net exports and business inventories they said, and the growth in upcoming quarters should be closer to the previous trend of 1.8 percent as fiscal policy impacts fade, with government spending no longer boosting growth in the second half of the year. Despite the first quarter results they expect growth for the year to be only one-tenth point higher than earlier projections...(read more)

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5/22/2019 6:11:53 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing rose to the surface yet again, driving the gain in mortgage applications during the week ended May 17. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and was 2.0 percent higher before seasonal adjustment. The increase was solely due to an 8.0 percent surge in the Refinance Index. The share of applications that were for refinancing also increased, jumping from 37.9 percent during the week ended May 10 to 40.5 percent. The volume of purchase mortgages declined for the second straight week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week while the unadjusted version lost 3.0 percent. The latter was still 7.0 percent higher...(read more)

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5/22/2019 6:04:07 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds have been threatening to end their pleasantly surprising stint of gains over the past few weeks on each of the past 4 business days. Yesterday's weakness was technically enough to start packing up the party supplies, but an isolated day of trend breakage is always more meaningful when it brings a friend. Today was the friend--only in our case, it's the friend of an enemy . In other words, today's moderate bond market weakness confirms the breakout of the stronger trend that had been intact during the previous 2 weeks. The losses can't be traced to any singular event although we can see that most of the weakness occurred during European hours overnight. News of a potential Brexit re-vote added to the mid-day weakness and actually prompted bond yields to hit their highs...(read more)

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5/21/2019 3:11:02 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates had a fairly decent day yesterday as far as most lenders are concerned. A few lenders saw fit to bump rates up in the afternoon following a day of weakness in the bond market (which directly affects the rates lenders can offer). Because a majority of lenders did NOT make that mid-day adjustment, they were always likely to do so with today's first rate sheets--especially if bonds didn't improve overnight. Not only did bonds not improve today, but they weakened a bit more. This made lenders' decisions easy. With that, the average conventional 30yr fixed quote moved back up to levels last seen on May 9th and 10th. In outright terms, some loan scenarios will be an eighth of a percentage point higher in rate while others will merely be looking at a reasonably big bump in closing costs...(read more)

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5/21/2019 2:50:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

This one might smart a bit. There were big hopes for home sales in April, with interest rates continuing at unexpectedly low levels, unemployment at a 50-year low, and the spring market supposedly in full swing. Analysts polled by Econoday expected that the existing home sales number would jump from the annual rate of 5.210 million sales in March to a consensus of 5.350 million, with some forecasting as high as a 5.400 million rate. Instead, the National Association of Realtors® said existing home sales ticked down even further, adding to the 4.9 percent month-over-month decline in March. Pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in April, down 0.4 percent from March. The year-over-year gap...(read more)

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5/21/2019 2:48:31 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

With interest rates remaining at 2019 lows and spring market home sales kicking in, the rate of prepayments continues to rise. Black Knight, in its "first look" at April mortgage performance data, says the rate is up 17.54 percent from March and 17.65 percent year over year. Over the last three months the prepayment rate has increased by an aggregate of 67 percent. The rate in April was 0.99 percent. The delinquency rate fell by 5.05 percent compared to March and is down 5.41 percent from April 2018. At 3.47 percent of all mortgages in the country, the rate is the lowest in Black Knight's records dated back to 2000. Loans that were at least 30 days past due but not in foreclosure fell by 91,000 to 1.812 million in April. This was 73,000 fewer delinquencies than a year earlier. Serious delinquencies...(read more)

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5/21/2019 8:46:04 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s the banter, and in the unverified rumor mill, at the MBA’s Secondary Conference? Fannie, Freddie, and FHA are all concerned about being adversely selected against by lenders, and F&F are rumored to be ending pilot programs under FHFA direction. Regarding the QM Patch (expiring 1/10/21), industry insiders are working toward fixing the Ability to Repay Rule, in which case we wouldn’t need the Patch. Every FHA & VA lender should read Ginnie’s report from Friday as that organization is evaluating non-bank issuers. Lots of rumors about Freedom Mortgage purchasing RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing. Many lenders had good Aprils, profit-wise, and wholesale “pricing wars” are subsiding somewhat, but innovation in that sector continuing to push retail and...(read more)

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5/21/2019 7:33:11 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just past, bonds weakened moderately amid the lightest volume in more than 3 weeks and a relative absence of market moving data/events. The losses are somewhat logical in the sense that momentum measurements have increasingly suggested this month's rally momentum was looking tired, not to mention the fact that friendly headlines and events have died down rapidly (i.e. no more daily doses of US/China trade war surprises). Even if we wanted to say that Huawei news or speculation about the trade war's effect on companies like Apple were still market movers this week, the impacts there have primarily been an issue for the stock market. Bonds generally shrugged off a rather steep drop in stocks yesterday and then bounced to the weakest levels of the day simply because stocks stopped...(read more)

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5/21/2019 7:31:54 AM

Ken Flory, Bennion Deville Homes 760-485-2123 or email: flry7@aol.com  California BRE Lic#01361850


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