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Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The percentage of potential home buyers who perceive housing in their market as affordable increased in the third quarter, at least as reported in a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) survey. NAHB's Housing Trends Report says that 27 percent of buyers responding to the survey reported they could afford at least half of the homes available for sale in their markets. This is up from 20 percent in the third quarter of last year. Rose Quint writes in NAHB's Eye on Housing blog that the increased responses indicate that lower mortgage rates have had a stronger impact on some buyers' perceptions of affordability than has rising home prices. "Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind that most home buyers (72 percent) still say they can afford only a minority of the homes available...(read more)

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10/28/2020 10:59:05 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Surely not everyone was kung fu fighting, right? I hope that we don’t see any fighting after November 3. I love to ask people, who think we’re going to see volatility next week, a) why, and b) what kind? We could very well see no huge jumps of any sort. From a capital markets perspective, it’s not as if the Fed is going to hike short term rates based on the result of the election although the long end of the yield curve may be buffeted by more or less economic shut down. No immediate changes are expected to mortgage rules and regulations. Besides, we may not know the results of some of the elections for days or weeks, especially if anyone ties the results up in court. (Regardless, vote! It’s a right of being a U.S. citizen. 70-80 million have already done so.) Markets...(read more)

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10/28/2020 10:52:07 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application volume rose slightly during the week ended October 23. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, its first increase in three weeks. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was 2.0 percent higher. The Refinance Index gained 3 percent from the previous week's level and was 80 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.7 percent of total applications from 66.1 percent the previous week. The Purchase Index was up 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Even if fractional, it was the first uptick in that index since the week ended September 18. The Index dipped 0.3 percent unadjusted but...(read more)

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10/28/2020 10:43:48 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost ground consistently throughout the month, but those losses have been far better contained relative to their recent range. MBS are best characterized as "sideways" since August. Treasuries, on the other hand, were only really sideways through September. Since then, they've broken 2 key range ceilings at .72 and .80. As the chart shows, the most recent break above 0.80 is already in question. Yesterday's gain brought yields back under that technical level. Any strength today would help confirm the positive shift. So what would it take for bonds to log another win today? As always, there are several ways to answer. From a...(read more)

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10/28/2020 9:03:59 AM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates are mostly determined by the trading levels of mortgage-backed bonds on the open market. When those bonds improve, mortgage rates move lower, all other things being equal. For a variety of reasons, that typical relationship has been hit and miss on any given day since the pandemic began. Today is a milder example. Bonds improved, but the average mortgage lender is offering rates that are nearly unchanged versus yesterday. The trade-off is that mortgage rates stayed much lower than the bond market suggested for most of the rest of the month of October. In other words, mortgage rates have been hesitant to move higher OR lower relative to the bond market's suggestion. All that having been said, broad trends in the bond market are still important. The more bonds move in the same...(read more)

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10/27/2020 3:45:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp acceleration in price growth, with the annual total at 8.0% by the end of August. If prices completely stopped moving up in Sept, that puts new conforming loan limits on pace for $545k+. Meanwhile, with a 2nd straight day of gains, the bond market is making case for a supportive shift, but risks remain. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Durable Goods 1.9 vs 0.5 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core Durable Goods 1.0 vs 0.5 f'cast, 2.1 prev FHFA Home prices (y/y) +8.0 vs +6.5 prev Case Shiller Home Prices (y/y) 5.2 vs 4.1 prev Consumer Confidence 100.9 vs 102 f'cast, 101.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:51 AM Bonds were modestly stronger...(read more)

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10/27/2020 3:33:53 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The U.S. homeownership rate in the third quarter fell back slightly from the prior quarter. The second quarter saw the highest level for homeownership since the second quarter of 2008. Homeownership in the third quarter, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, was 67.4 percent, 0.5-point decrease from the previous period, but up from 64.8 percent in the third quarter of 2019. That rate ties with the second quarter of 2009 as the second highest rate since the onset of the housing crisis. The rate was highest in the Midwest and South at 71.2 percent and 70.8 percent and substantially lower in the Northeast (62.0 percent) and West (62.1 percent). All four regions posted annual increases. The rate increased for all age groups. Those under the age of 35 jumped from 37.5 percent in the third quarter...(read more)

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10/27/2020 11:07:44 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is a key consideration for rates, and it will be updated in less than a month! Today's FHFA home price data was the 2nd to last month needed to calculate the annual change in home prices (which FHFA relies on to determine new loan limits). But it's not quite as easy as just looking at the headline 8.0% annual growth. Loan limits are based on FHFA's expanded data set that is only released quarterly. Fortunately , that expanded data set tends to fall very close to the Home Price Index headlines. We'll get September's data (and thus the quarterly number) next month. We got August today, and it was very strong. But do you really...(read more)

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10/27/2020 10:33:05 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The impact of low interest rates and pent up buyer demand played out in sharply increasing home prices in August. Both the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices posted significant appreciation on an annual basis and acceleration in that appreciation compared to prior months. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp commented, "The forgone spring home-buying season appears to have fully shifted into summer months, leading to sales volumes that are picking up speed at a time when they would normally show signs of slowing. Additional demand was amplified by buyers looking for larger homes and second homes in resort and beach areas. Current home price growth is exceptionally strong given that the U.S. is an economic recession, but it is the historically...(read more)

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10/27/2020 10:23:30 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 17.5 percent in September compared to a 27.7 percent gain in August. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.570 trillion compared to $2.533 trillion the prior month and $2.295 trillion a year earlier. The growth rate for the year to date is 13.7 percent. Purchases and Issuances totaled $114.386 billion and Sales were ($3.064) billion. The August numbers were $131.140 billion and ($898) billion, respectively. Single-family refinance loan purchase and guarantee volume was $70.9 billion in September compared to $87.200 billion in August, representing a 69 percent share of total single-family mortgage portfolio purchases and issuances compared to 70 percent the previous month. Purchases...(read more)

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10/27/2020 10:00:40 AM

Ken Flory, Bennion Deville Homes 760-485-2123 or email: flry7@aol.com  California BRE Lic#01361850


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